To be or not to maybe!

A math professor is going through the security check at an airport and as the guard runs his baggage through the detector, he notices a bomb in it. He's surprised and immediately accosts the professor and in interrogation asks him if he knows that there's a bomb in his bag?

"Yes", says the professor.

"So you put it there yourself?"

"Yes" said the professor.

"But why" asks the guard flabbergasted.

"Its simple", the learned man explains. "The probability that on any given plane there is a person with a bomb on it is about 0.001. But the probability that there are TWO people on the plane with a bomb each independently is only about 0.00000001. So if I have one bomb, then the plane is definitely safer!"

That was a really cool anecdote I recently heard about the errors of statistical thinking. Something we fall into a lot during debating where we just swallow and spew statistics by the truckfull.

It's a wonder about how often it happens if you think about it. All our fears... fear of the dark, of riding in traffic but not ready to walk in a lightning storm, of our hopes... of winning a lottery, scoring a promotion... and well, just scoring. Of course, the last I will understand on instinctual basis. :-)

So while I'm running a major risk of contracting carpel tunnel syndrome or RSI as I spend these hours staring at the screen thus also reducing my lateral vision capabilities while the heat from the computer raises my blood pressure and increases my chances at becoming infertile, I sit here tenacious in my resolve to bestow upon you a little inkling of my humble BLAH!

Three cheers and a pip for me!